Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment

by Eric Zuehlke, editor

On August 12, PRB launched the annual World Population Data Sheet and accompanying Population Bulletin in Washington, DC, highlighting country, regional, and global population, health, and environment data and patterns. This year’s data sheet places special emphasis on youth.

The share of world’s youth population is growing in Africa and shrinking in More Developed Countries (MDCs). In 1950, 9 percent of the world’s youth lived in Africa and 30 percent lived in MDCs (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan). By 2050, that share will change to 29 percent in Africa and 11 percent in the MDCs. “The great bulk of today’s 1.2 billion youth—nearly 90 percent—are in developing countries,” said Carl Haub, PRB senior demographer and co-author of the data sheet. Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia. “During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care.” With the right investments in health, education, agricutlural develomment, and entrepreneurship, a large youth population can be an opportunity for development and change. However, these investments are not being made in many countries. The fundamental question facing many developing countries is whether the needs of their large youth populations will be met. The answer to this question will largely determine the development, stability, and future of developing countries.  

The data sheet shows just how stark the contrasts are between rich and poor countries in terms of population growth, life expectancy, income, and other indicators. Stay tuned for a webcast on prb.org of the data sheet launch at the National Press Club over the next week.

We welcome your comments, input, questions on our findings and the implications of this on the world’s future. 

Here are just a few stories on the data sheet launch from around the world:

CNN: World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011

The New York Times DotEarth: A billion teenagers, for better or worse

National Post: World population to hit 7 billion by 2011: report

Daily Dispatch (South Africa): Africa Will Battle for Resources

Xinhua (China): Global population to hit 7 billion in 2011: US report

Pravda (Russia): Russian Population To Reduce to 110 Million by 2050

The Sofia Echo (Bulgaria): World population to reach 9.4 billion by 2050, report says

The Sun (Malaysia): US teen birth rates higher than rest of developed world

by Nadwa Mossaad, research associate

A new report by Duke University, funded by the Foundation for Child Development, paints a dire portrait of U.S. children in 2010. Child poverty is expected to soar to 21 percent, higher than that of the severe recession during the 1980s. The current economic crisis is expected to wipe out any progress in child well-being made within the last 30 years.

The report’s Child Well-Being Index tracks several key child well-being indicators within seven domains: economic, health, behavioral, educational, community connectedness, social relationships and emotional well-being. All are expected to be negatively affected by the current recession.

The report warns against bad health outcomes due to higher rates of obesity, as parents substitute cheaper foods that are high in sugar content and low in nutritional value for higher-priced foods. Income is predicted to decline as parents lose jobs or become underemployed. Crime and victimization rates could increase as budget cuts will mandate less funding for programs aimed at curbing crime. Other budget cuts could reduce preschool and summer school programs for children.

In addition to rising poverty rates, obesity, and homelessness, the report warns against changes in family structure. Financial strain puts emotional stress on families, contributing to increases in divorce and single-parent families. Minority children, including children of immigrants, will inevitably be at a greater disadvantage than others.

You can read more about the 2009 CWI and its findings on the PRB website.

by Farzaneh (Nazy) Roudi, program director, Middle East and North Africa

Iran’s demographic momentum is in favor of those who aspire for social and political change. According to the 2006 Iranian census, one in three people in Iran is between the ages of 15 and 29. Furthermore, half the Iranian population of more than 70 million is under age 30, born around the 1979 Islamic revolution or after (see the age pyramid below). For them, the Islamic revolution is history and they want change now to address today’s needs. By their very nature, young people throughout the world aspire for a life different from and better than their parents, and in fact they are often the force behind changes in their societies. 

Source: Statistical Center of Iran

The youth bulge is more evident in Iran than any other country in the world because Iran has experienced the fastest fertility decline in the last two decades or so, according to a recent United Nations report (see table A.14). According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, fertility declined by more than two-thirds, from 6.6 births per woman in the mid-1970s to about 2 births per woman in 2006. The most surprising and impressive decline occurred in rural areas. In one generation (a period of about 30 years), Iranian women living in rural areas moved from giving birth to 8 children to around 2 children, on average. 

Iran’s Falling Fertility Rate by Area for Selected Years, 1977-2006

Source: Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education.

The rapid decline in the total fertility rate is due to simultaneous reduction at all ages: delay in childbearing by young couples, increased spacing of births by married women, and cessation of births by older women. These changes coincided with the revival of the national family planning program, delivered free through a nationwide network of primary health care facilities. Today, nearly 80 percent of married women of reproductive age use family planning and 60 percent of married women use a modern method.

Iranian women have been an accelerating force of development in the country, as manifested in their fertility behavior and desire to improve their life—55 percent of students enrolled in colleges and universities in 2005 were female. Having achieved their reproductive rights, Iranian women are now at the forefront of movements in the country that demand more rights and equality for all its citizens.

Whether Iran will manage to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend (having a large working-age population relative to the younger and older population groups who depend on the working-age population) all depends on how well its economy is equipped to create jobs for its rapidly expanding and mostly educated labor force. The youth unemployment rate (15 to 24 years old) stands at 23 percent, twice that of the total labor force. Finding a job is even more challenging for young women. One in three young Iranian women in the labor force (defined as either working or looking for a job) are unemployed.   Young Iranians have been leaving the country in large numbers to find jobs in faraway places as Canada and Australia. The cost to the country for losing its human capital is estimated to be $40 billion a year.

Unemployment and high costs of living, coupled with social and political restrictions, have made it increasingly difficult for young Iranians. The sudden uprising that erupted following the disputed presidential election of June 12 is a manifestation of all the underlying frustrations. Young people’s demands for more political and social freedom and economic security cannot be ignored, not only because they are living at the dawn of 21st century and their demands are legitimate, but also because of their sheer numbers.

by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs, program director, Gender

Last week, I visited ground zero of hope and it wasn’t in Washington, London, or Geneva.  It was 60 kilometers outside of Nairobi, in a small town called Kajiado.

With 15 journalists in a workshop funded by USAID and organized by PRB, I went to the AIC Girls’ Primary School and Rescue Center and although we were hot, dusty, and grumpy from the traffic jams and rough roads when we arrived, we left hopeful and inspired.

While we were there we heard from the headmaster, Nicholas Muniu, and a dedicated staff member named Catherine that change is happening: that girls named Emily and Beatrice were among the girls who had come to the school escaping from certain early marriage and female genital mutilation (FGM); that among the 706 girls now at the school, 217 were rescued from early marriage and FGM; that some were brought by uncles, fathers, and mothers who wanted something better for these daughters. Even more amazing, many came by themselves.

The school began in 1959 with 20 girls and now has more than 700, with a waiting list of girls who want to come. While some of the girls were only rescued after they had already been subjected to FGM or early marriages, the school is now rescuing many before this happens. While the school was formerly viewed with suspicion—and even met with spear-carrying husbands and fathers—the school is gaining respect quickly.  The graduates of Kajiado graduate with top academic skills, according to headmaster Muniu.  And more importantly, the thinking among chiefs in the region has changed dramatically. “Chiefs now accept that educating girls is more important than getting two cows for them in early marriages,” Muniu says.

It quickly becomes apparent that the school, which runs through grade 8, is more than a shelter for these girls, it’s a doorway to a brighter future. While customs and laws change slowly in this part of the world, these girls quickly grasp that they can be anything they want.  They study hard, they live without many of the amenities expected in the West, they sometimes say goodbye forever to families who would force them to undergo old customs and harmful traditional practices. But they have dreams, these girls. When asked what they want to be, they answer doctors and lawyers and pilots. Though they may never have been on an airplane, I know that some day they will be.  For this school has given them wings to fly.

by Yordanos Goushe, senior reporter,  Ethiopia Radio TV Agency

The most effective way of saving young girls from FGM, rape, and early marriage is strengthening the optional center of care that functions within the society. Women in the society remain the vanguard to take actions against the impairing conditions for young girls through a most supporting structure.        

On Saturday, April 25, 2009 we Women’s Edition journalists visited the Kajiado AIC Rescue Center, a center that was created by people who were committed to educating young girls. The girls in the center have stories to tell about Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), early marriage, and rape.  These stories make you wonder how such things are done by a parent to his/her own offspring in the name of culture.  However, there are also beautiful and rare stories of hope. If we ask the young girls in the rescue center, they will tell us they want to be a lawyer, politician, public figure, and a journalist. 

Taking these and other difficulties of Kajiado girls into consideration, the AIC Rescue Center has taken the step of working with the chiefs, fathers, and mothers of the community. Now the chiefs are protecting the young girls who go back to their community for school break and fathers are bringing their daughters before the cutting is done to them.

The AIC Rescue Center receives girls  from all over Kenya, some travelling a long distance after being the victims of rape, others running away from home because they do not want to be cut. The center provides good education, food, and shelter for these young girls who have seen a lot at an early age. The center receives all of them with an open hand even if it has limited capacity; there is always room for one more young girl who comes to the rescue center to have another chance in life.

There is a very important message which comes across from the AIC Rescue Center: there are young girls who are saying “no” to the cultural barriers in their communities and these girls need help, so it’s our duty to help them find a solution.

by Bill Butz, President and CEO, Population Reference Bureau  

I’ve led a relatively privileged life, never economically poor or deprived of basic needs. But I’ve been around data and research on poverty throughout my career. At RAND, I surveyed and studied how poverty, fertility, health, and economic opportunities interact in Guatemala and Malaysia. At the Census Bureau, much of the official U.S. statistics on poverty, income, education, and health were my responsibility. At the National Science Foundation, we funded much academic research on poverty in the U.S and elsewhere. And now at PRB, we turn relevant data and research about poverty and other topics into clear and evidence-based information for decision makers. So, based on a life’s experience and on the scientific evidence—if I were Lead Adviser, what would I do to substantially reduce poverty? Here’s how I’ll spend the first billion dollars:

• I will spend $300 million to build schools, develop relevant curricula, train teachers, and ensure effective primary schooling—all to eliminate functional illiteracy in poor countries. In spite of real progress over the last 30 years, about a billion people, most of them female, entered this century unable to write their names or read a book. Most won’t, for this reason, use new farming techniques or work in a modern factory. They’re stuck. Based on recent progress, we know how to increase literacy through schooling.
• I will spend $300 million to increase the availability of effective and affordable contraceptives to women and men who want to reduce or space their births. More children than desired causes poverty. Based on the evidence, we know how to create a more enabling environment to lower birth rates. See PRB’s policy brief, Ensuring a Wide Range of Family Planning Choices for more information.
• I will spend $200 mllion to teach disadvantaged U.S. children age 4-6 cognitive skills along with noncognitive skills like motivation and perseverance, all of which are necessary for success in school and jobs. If necessary, I will pay for this by shifting resources from formal schooling and remedial job training, neither of which works without the basic skills. We don’t know exactly how to impart these skills in ways consistent with parental roles, so the first dollars will go into research and controlled field trials. See James J. Heckman’s article “Skill Formation and the Economics of Investing in Disadvantaged Children.”
• I will spend $200 million to eliminate child undernourishment in the world. A third of all child deaths globally, three and a half million each year, is due to nutrition-related causes. Many of those who survive have less energy and health for school and work. This exacerbates poverty. We know how to eliminate undernutrition (overnutrition—obesity—is tougher) and doing so isn’t expensive as these things go. See James Levinson and Lucy Bassett’s PRB brief on malnutrition, The Lancet’s Series on Maternal and Child Undernutrition, and PRB’s seminar on improving child nutrition for more.  

The list of challenges goes on: bad governance, industrialized country agricultural policies, HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases, food maldistribution, lack of employment opportunities and more. Indeed, my top priorities will not succeed in some places without complementary investments. Still, to lead is to choose. You see how this “adviser” would choose. If you were Lead Adviser instead, what would you choose to do?

(If you really like the priorities game, see Copenhagenconsensus.com and the UN Millennium Development Goals 2008 Report)