Comments on: Will the Economic Downturn Lower Birth Rates? http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/ The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment Sat, 18 May 2013 19:32:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Receding birth rates: milestone or tipping point? « Family Inequality http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-4816 Receding birth rates: milestone or tipping point? « Family Inequality Thu, 02 Sep 2010 01:26:04 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-4816 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: Diana Lavery http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-2383 Diana Lavery Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:00:17 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-2383 I work for the County of Riverside, CA's demographics department. I know this post was written over a year ago, so the data is out now for 2009 in our county and yes, the birth counts have declined quite a bit! When I divided the numbers by the total pop to get the crude birth rates, the cbr's for 2008 and 2009 are a bit lower than 2006 and 2007. Riverside County is quite a large county in California (over 2 million in population) so I am comfortable comparing the cbr's from recent years (there haven't been any major age-structural changes recently). For my research, I don't really look into the answers to "why" but I can see some validity to all the answers offered on this thread. Maybe because Riverside County has experienced a great deal of foreclosures and unemployment, but I would have to research further to be sure. I just wanted to share with everyone that yes, the current data does confirm that lower birth rates are taking place during this economic downturn. I work for the County of Riverside, CA’s demographics department. I know this post was written over a year ago, so the data is out now for 2009 in our county and yes, the birth counts have declined quite a bit! When I divided the numbers by the total pop to get the crude birth rates, the cbr’s for 2008 and 2009 are a bit lower than 2006 and 2007. Riverside County is quite a large county in California (over 2 million in population) so I am comfortable comparing the cbr’s from recent years (there haven’t been any major age-structural changes recently).

For my research, I don’t really look into the answers to “why” but I can see some validity to all the answers offered on this thread. Maybe because Riverside County has experienced a great deal of foreclosures and unemployment, but I would have to research further to be sure. I just wanted to share with everyone that yes, the current data does confirm that lower birth rates are taking place during this economic downturn.

]]> By: Lynn Stoppelman http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-1042 Lynn Stoppelman Sun, 21 Feb 2010 04:09:44 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-1042 I think it is also worth noting that the highly educated young adults in the U.S. are marrying much later and having fewer, if any children. That is going to have an impact as well. Remember, this was the group that used to drive the private school system and endow ivy league universities (many of whom lost considerable wealth reserves in the recession). Having children is seen as a major expense by most new couples. The cost of education has risen tremendously over the last 25 years and heavily influenced the decision to limit family size. In addition, the cost of medical care is a huge deterrent to creating large families. The social shifts which are causing members of families to scatter across the world for their jobs is another reason people are unwilling to have more than two children...they no longer have the family support system that could pitch in if there was an emergency. I think it is also worth noting that the highly educated young adults in the U.S. are marrying much later and having fewer, if any children. That is going to have an impact as well. Remember, this was the group that used to drive the private school system and endow ivy league universities (many of whom lost considerable wealth reserves in the recession).

Having children is seen as a major expense by most new couples. The cost of education has risen tremendously over the last 25 years and heavily influenced the decision to limit family size. In addition, the cost of medical care is a huge deterrent to creating large families. The social shifts which are causing members of families to scatter across the world for their jobs is another reason people are unwilling to have more than two children…they no longer have the family support system that could pitch in if there was an emergency.

]]> By: Amanda Mitchell http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-644 Amanda Mitchell Tue, 08 Dec 2009 05:26:05 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-644 I to have noticed this decrease in fertility rates. Although I do see where people are coming from How to Conceive a Girl, I believe that people not having as many kids during the recession isn't because they don't have enough sex or that they aren't as happy. I believe that it is because kids are expensive. Even if you have the healthiest baby ever you are still going to have to pay quite a bit of money to have and raise the kid. During the recession money is tight winch makes the need for it greater and the need to conserve it even greater. I to have noticed this decrease in fertility rates. Although I do see where people are coming from How to Conceive a Girl, I believe that people not having as many kids during the recession isn’t because they don’t have enough sex or that they aren’t as happy. I believe that it is because kids are expensive. Even if you have the healthiest baby ever you are still going to have to pay quite a bit of money to have and raise the kid. During the recession money is tight winch makes the need for it greater and the need to conserve it even greater.

]]> By: How to Conceive a Girl http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-585 How to Conceive a Girl Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:50:04 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-585 Hi Carl, Very interesting statistics. Maybe the downturn in birth rates is indeed related to the cycles of boom and bust in quite a simple way. People have more sex when they're happier, leading to more pregnancies. When people are worrying about money, as they will do in times of bust / recession, they're much less likely to be in a better mood and therefore are less likely to have sex, leading to less pregnancies. Simple eh? Angie Hi Carl,
Very interesting statistics. Maybe the downturn in birth rates is indeed related to the cycles of boom and bust in quite a simple way. People have more sex when they’re happier, leading to more pregnancies. When people are worrying about money, as they will do in times of bust / recession, they’re much less likely to be in a better mood and therefore are less likely to have sex, leading to less pregnancies.
Simple eh?
Angie

]]> By: Heather Hopkins http://prbblog.org/index.php/2009/01/08/will-the-economic-downturn-lower-birth-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-87 Heather Hopkins Mon, 23 Feb 2009 12:25:07 +0000 http://prbblog.org/?p=34#comment-87 Carl, Fascinating stuff. Thanks. I am an analyst with Hitwise, an internet measurement service and came across your blog in doing research for my own blog. Hitwise reports internet usage data including searches (i.e. queries typed into Google et al) and I checked our data as a leading indicator of birth rates and found that internet searches for "pregnancy" and "maternity clothes" are both down year over year. That was when I came across your blog. You mention that the data on birth rates during the recession won't be available for quite awhile. Not sure if our data will be of use to you, but I am preparing a blog post about fertility rates and internet searches and before I publish it I thought I'd reach out to you to see if you have any thoughts on something I uncovered. Searches for maternity and pregnancy were falling before the recession started. Why? In a boom economy, wouldn't irrational exuberance lead to higher birth rates? One theory is an ageing population. Anything to add? Thanks, Heather Carl,

Fascinating stuff. Thanks. I am an analyst with Hitwise, an internet measurement service and came across your blog in doing research for my own blog.

Hitwise reports internet usage data including searches (i.e. queries typed into Google et al) and I checked our data as a leading indicator of birth rates and found that internet searches for “pregnancy” and “maternity clothes” are both down year over year.

That was when I came across your blog. You mention that the data on birth rates during the recession won’t be available for quite awhile. Not sure if our data will be of use to you, but I am preparing a blog post about fertility rates and internet searches and before I publish it I thought I’d reach out to you to see if you have any thoughts on something I uncovered.

Searches for maternity and pregnancy were falling before the recession started. Why? In a boom economy, wouldn’t irrational exuberance lead to higher birth rates? One theory is an ageing population.

Anything to add?

Thanks, Heather

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