An Older, Slower-Growing U.S. Population

by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs

The United States is on a new demographic trajectory: The population is set to reach 400 million by 2051, 12 years later than previously projected, according to population projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Whites are projected to drop below 50 percent of the U.S. population by 2043. And in 2056, the number of people ages 65 and older is set to exceed the number of children under age 18 for the first time in U.S. history.

What’s driving the slowdown in population growth? A recent drop in net immigration to the United States is a key factor. Around the turn of the millennium, the Census Bureau was estimating net international migration at about 1.4 million per year. By late in the decade, that annual number had been adjusted downward to less than 900,000. And between 2010 and 2011, net migration was estimated at 700,000.

The decline in immigration dampens U.S. population growth in two ways.  Fewer immigrants means fewer new residents being added to the U.S. population each year. But the decline in immigration also reduces the number of potential births. Young families—many of them first- or second-generation immigrants—have been the engine of U.S. population growth for several decades. As this engine stalls, there are fewer births to offset the large number of baby boomers who are reaching retirement age. By 2030, people age 65 or older are projected to make up one in five U.S. residents.

The recent decline in U.S. fertility is another key factor slowing population growth. Historically, the United States has had relatively high fertility compared with other developed countries. But the National Center for Health Statistics recently reported that the average number of births per woman dropped to 1.9 in 2011—well below replacement level. This recent fertility decline may be just a short-term response to high unemployment rates, or it may signal a longer-term drop in lifetime fertility. See PRB’s article on the decline in U.S. fertility for more information.

Racial/Ethnic Change

The decline in net immigration slows the pace of racial/ethnic change in the United States, but it does not reverse it. During the next several decades, there will be a sharp increase in racial and ethnic minorities, especially among Latinos and Asians. When the U.S. population reached 300 million in 2007, non-Hispanic whites made up about two-thirds of the population (see table). By the time the country reaches 400 million:

• The white, non-Hispanic share of the population is expected to drop to 46 percent.
• Over one in four U.S. residents is expected to be Hispanic—up from one in seven in 2007.
• The Census Bureau projects that the number of Asians and Pacific Islanders will reach 30.8 million—more than twice their 2007 population.

U.S. Population in 2007 and 2051, by Race/Ethnicity¹

Notes: 1. Estimates as of July 1. The U.S. population officially reached 300 million in February 2007.
2. Non-Hispanic. Estimates for whites, blacks, American Indians, and Asian and Pacific Islanders include those who identify with only one race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

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