Demographics has played an important role in the Arab rebellions, said Joseph Chamie of the Center for Migration Studies during a recent panel discussion at the annual Population Association of America (PAA) meeting in San Francisco. But demographics can exacerbate other serious problems, including brutal repression, human rights violations, government corruption, poverty, unemployment, religious and tribal rivalries, and a large influx of migrants and refugees. The largest refugee population in the world is in the Arab region, he said. The panel’s speakers were John Casterline, Ohio State University; Richard Cincotta, the Stimson Center; Farzaneh “Nazy” Roudi, Population Reference Bureau; and Nasra Shah, Kuwait University.
In his presentation, “Potential Upheaval in the Arab Region—Impact on Reproductive Change?”, John Casterline focused on the consequences of the rebellions, while the following speakers outlined more of the determinants. Casterline illustrated his presentation with anecdotes from his visits to the region and conversations with people, concluding that while it’s still early, “a period of dashed hope seems to be settling in.” The rebellions seem to have brought a pronatalist movement into effect, with the rejections of a “Western agenda.” Demographic data and demographic analysis have lost legitimacy since the old regime, he said. The return of electoral politics has established a direct relationship between population and political weight. Still, he added, couples ultimately make their own decisions about their households.
A young Egyptian protester holding an Egyptian flag, Cairo, Egypt. Photo: Kim Eun Yeul / World Bank
Richard Cincotta discussed “Politicodemographic Forecasts of the Rite of Democracy in North Africa.” He presented a demographic model of the region and said that in his view, the era of democratization (in its third wave) is not over, yet.
Nazy Roudi, director of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Program at PRB, presented, “Numbers Don’t Lie: Youth in Egypt.” One in four Arabs is an Egyptian, she said, and unemployment among youth in the MENA region is the highest in the world—2.5 times higher than in East Asia and South Asia. And unemployment among women is far higher than among men. She cited the Survey of Youth in Egypt 2009 in which women said the reason they did not find a job was because they believed there was no job available for the qualifications they had. Meanwhile, men responded that they were unable to find a job because they did not think that an available job paid enough. Roudi echoed Casterline’s earlier point that while government policies are important, more important is the balance of gender roles within a family, and that women feel empowered to talk with their husbands about fertility decisions. “My prediction is that the TFR is going to become higher in Egypt,” Roudi said.
HIV/AIDS in Cameroon. The preliminary report of the 2011 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey/HIV (DHS/HIV) has been released (in French). This survey tested 13,503 women and men ages 15-49 and 699 men ages 50-59 for HIV infection. The results indicate that 4.3 percent of the 15-49 age group were HIV positive, 5.6 percent among females and 2.9 percent among males. The males ages 50-59 were 2.9 percent positive. The 2011 prevalence was lower than that reported in the 2004 Cameroon DHS, which was 5.5 percent for 15-49 year-olds, 6.8 percent among females and 4.1 percent among males.
Youth Tax in Germany. Germany is likely to impose a 1 percent additional income tax on workers over the age of 25 as a “demographic reserve” to prepare for the time when German baby boomers of the 1950s and 1960s will swell the ranks of pensioners. Official projections show that there will be 7 million fewer workers by 2025 to support retirees. Germany’s total fertility rate fell below the replacement level over 40 years ago and is currently about 1.35 children per woman.
Latest Data on the Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) in India. Following up on an earlier blog post on this subject, progress on this measure has clearly stalled for a number of years. The national campaign against the abortion of female fetuses may be in for a difficult stretch. The graphs below update the Sample Registration System data to the period 2008-2010. Since there about 5 percent more male births than female births worldwide, a normal sex ratio at birth in India would be 950 female births per 1,000 male births. India’s SRB is the reverse of most other countries which typically show male births per 100 female births. Note particularly the two states with the lowest SRB, Punjab and Haryana. Improvement in their SRBs stopped three or four years ago. A somewhat similar trend can be seen in the five states in the second graph although their ratios are better. The national SRB in India is 905, 898 in urban areas and 907 in rural. More data from the new report will be in the next blog post.
One area that has seen tremendous growth is Nairobi’s largest slum, Kibera. While experts have given estimates ranging from 270,000 to 2 million residents, Kibera is a large area of informal settlements plagued by challenges such as the lack of electricity, job opportunities, and high levels of violence.
While it may be easier to focus on what is lacking in Kibera, there are also many services being provided in the community including affordable and quality reproductive health care by organizations such as Marie Stopes Kenya.
Marie Stopes Kenya was established in Kenya in 1985 as a locally registered nongovernmental organization. It is Kenya’s largest and most specialized sexual reproductive health and family planning organization and is known for providing a wide range of high-quality, affordable, and client-centered services to men, women, and youth throughout Kenya. In 1997, Marie Stopes Kenya opened its first clinic in Kibera and began offering reproductive health services at an affordable rate for residents.
During a visit to the clinic, I had the honor of interviewing the Kibera Clinic Manager, Pamela Warinda. Pamela is a nurse and midwife by training and has been working with Marie Stopes since 1995. She began managing the clinic in Kibera in September, 2010.
by Mia Foreman, policy analyst, International Programs
Kibera, located 5 km from the city center of Nairobi, has been called Africa’s second-largest slum with estimates of around 200,000 to 270,000 residents. Kibera has many challenges, including lack of employment, electricity, proper sanitation, and housing, and high rates of drug use and violence — especially rape. The lack of employment and education are among the biggest contributing factors to the cycle of poverty with many young people surviving through illegal activities, such as prostitution or drug dealing.
Although there are many hardships, every day local citizens are making a difference in this community. I was fortunate enough to spend time with two young ladies, ages 20 and 22, who are doing just that as members of the community-based organization Kibera Hamlet.
Kibera Hamlet was founded in 2004 by youth in Kibera and currently serves more than 150 adolescents and children from the area, 65 percent of whom are orphans and 10 percent of whom are HIV positive. The organization is involved in many activities including The Girls Empowerment Project. The overall goal of the project is to empower young girls to change their lives and decide for themselves what they want their future to look like.
The Girls Empowerment Project was created to bring together young girls to discuss the daily challenges of living in Kibera, such as early marriage, unsafe abortion, pregnancy, and female genital mutilation. The average situation for a girl growing up in Kibera is quite dire. If she is still single at a young age, chances are her family will send her out to look for money to help with the cost of living. Most of the time, this means prostitution. A girl will sleep with a man for 50 Kenya shillings (KSH), less than one U.S. dollar. This is not enough to put food on the table so she will need to sleep with four to five men a day to make enough money to bring back to her family. If she asks the man to use a condom, the price goes down so most girls don’t use condoms.
by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs
In the U.K., they are called NEETS, people who are “Not in Employment, Education, or Training.” In Spain and Mexico, they have been called Generation Neither-Nor. We have them in the United States too, and their numbers have increased since the onset of the recession—especially among men. A new report by PRB shows that the percent of young men ages 25 to 34 who are neither working nor attending school increased sharply between 2007 and 2010, from 14 percent to 19 percent. During the same period, the share of women who were not working and not in school remained steady at 26 percent. Part of this gender difference can be explained by women’s earlier age at marriage, compared with men.
Percent Distribution of Young Adults Ages 25-34 by School Enrollment and Employment
Status, 2007 and 2010
Men (%)
Women (%)
School Enrollment, Employment Status
2007
2010
2007
2010
In school, working
8
8
10
10
In school, not working
3
4
4
5
Not in school, working
75
69
61
58
Not in school, not working
14
19
26
26
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs
The ICFP 2011 High-Level Meeting organized for Ministers of Planning, Finance, and Health of African countries is focusing on achieving the demographic dividend. While it’s easy to talk about this process that led to the economic success of the “Asian Tigers” in abstract terms, it’s more difficult to speak in specifics about it. Fortunately, Ruth Levine of the Hewlett Foundation did focus her comments on the need to pay attention to the needs of youth—highlighting the “Millennium Development Babies” –the cohort born in 2000 which will soon be reaching age 12. As the largest birth cohort in human history, the outcome of this generation can either energize or destabilize societies around the world. I’d like to reflect on a few of Ruth’s comments.
While half of the world’s population is under age 25, the median ages in African countries range from 14 to 20 years of age. Imagine living in a country where half of the population is age 14 or younger! So what is life like for these young people? Although countries are successfully increasing educational enrollment, one also has to look at quality: In 14 countries, less than 1 in 5 girls who finished primary school can read a simple sentence. And 1 in 3 women ages 20 to 24 were married before age 18—they were child brides, and quickly become young mothers, posing risks to health and limiting economic opportunities. As more young people live in cities and urban areas, what opportunities do they have for an economically secure future?
by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs
With ICFP 2011 now underway, Wednesday morning’s plenary focused on the demographic dividend—the idea that through reducing fertility, the population structure can be modified and set the stage for economic development. Kenya and Indonesia were among the countries presented in the plenary.
Using data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, USAID’s Scott Radloff presented a population pyramid of Kenya’s age structure (see figure below); however, instead of showing the entire population in Kenya in one illustration, he showed the poorest quintile on the left side and the wealthiest quintile on the right. This presentation of data made me think of the demographic inequalities that exist within Kenya or any other country. In the poorest quintile, approximately 55 percent of the population was under age 15; in the wealthiest quintile, the population bulge was between ages 20 and 34—representing 35 percent of the quintile. Perhaps we can think of an emerging “middle-age bulge” rather than the “youth bulge” that we so frequently talk about. Whether we talk about Kenya or any other country, it’s important to remember that national-level statistics hide variations that exist within different segments of that population. And in response to these variations, policymakers need to target programs and interventions toward those most in need.
Source: 2008-2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
I arrived at the sign-in table for the Youth Policy Communication workshop just before 9am, as dozens of youth from the U.S., Netherlands, Senegal, Liberia, Nigeria, Zambia, and other countries eagerly lined up to get their notebooks and join PRB in a day-long training session yesterday. “How to Participate, Communicate, and Advocate: A Pre-Conference Workshop to Increase Youth Participation in the 2011 ICFP” aimed to develop youth participants’ communications skills, whether it was developing a 60-second “elevator speech,” a PowerPoint presentation, or blog. Each of the youth involved are advocates for adolescent reproductive rights, working in their local communities, local NGOs, or large international organizations. All of us who were gathered in the room are dedicated to reaching policymakers with key messages to make the argument that small investments in family planning pay huge dividends for the wellbeing of societies. Since many ministers and policymakers are here in Dakar this week, what better way to kick off the conference than to hone messages that can reach this audience?
Participants take notes at the IFCP 2011 Youth Policy Communication Workshop. Photo: PRB.
In order to get from where we are (our current understanding and skills) to where we want to be (wider commitment and policy change), PRB focused most of the day brainstorming in small groups around four areas of communication: objectives, audiences, messages, and channels, in order to develop a policy communication strategy. Laying out objectives is the first step in the process but, as Alexandra Hervish, PRB policy analyst explained, it is often the most difficult step. What exactly do we want to achieve? What is the end goal? Discussion started from there. Next, the groups discussed audiences to reach — primary, secondary (those that influence your primary audience), and opposition. Then, specific, concise messages were developed, grounded in data and evidence. Finally, which communications channels to use was discussed: How will these messages be communicated? What tools will be used?
by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs
Two years after the first international family planning conference in Uganda, people have come from around the world again to focus on prioritizing family planning—what is the new evidence, what advocacy successes have transpired, and how do we continue to improve access to family planning. And sitting in the lobby, passing through the hallways, standing in the registration area, there is a sense of anticipation that some important things will be happening during the next few days. The International Family Planning Conference 2011 is hours from starting.
Participants receive Cycle Beads as part of their name badge holders when registering at ICFP 2011.
One of the key conference topics is youth. When we think about the fact that there are 1.8 billion people on the planet between the ages of 10 and 24—and that this number is expected to continue growing for at least 20 more years—we understand why addressing the needs of youth is critical to global development. With this wave of young people, access to information and services is critical so that they can avoid unplanned pregnancies, HIV, and sexually transmitted infections. Tapping into the strength of this young population will also be critical to economic development. And to help youth participants make the most of the conference, PRB has organized an all-day workshop on effective communications—developing messages, learning how to blog, effective presentation styles—all within the context of a communication strategy for getting and keeping youth issues on national and international development agendas.
From a demographic perspective, the global distribution of intrastate conflicts is not what it used to be. During the latter half of the 20th century, the states with the most youthful populations (median age of 25.0 years or less) were consistently the most at risk of being engaged in civil or ethnoreligious conflict (circumstances where either ethnic or religious factors, or both, come into play). However, this tight relationship has loosened over the past decade, with the propensity of conflict rising significantly for countries with intermediate age structures (median age 25.1 to 35.0 years) and actually dipping for those with youthful age structures.
Photo: antitezo/Flickr.
Why has this relationship changed? At least two underlying trends help explain the shift:
Over the last two decades, the deployment of peace support operations to countries with youthful populations has surged (described in a previous post on New Security Beat); and
Ethnoreligious conflicts have gradually, though noticeably, increased among a group of states with a median age greater than 25.0 years (including Thailand, Turkey, and Russia).
Countries represented by the latter trend share a demographic arrangement known as a “persistent minority youth bulge” – a rapidly growing, age-structurally youthful minority that is politically dissonant and regionally or residentially segregated within a more mature country-level population.
National level comparisons of total fertility rates tend to communicate the false impression of a world with demographically homogeneous states. When available, sub-national data present a very different picture.
