This is the first in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.
by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs
At the opening of a side event of the Sixth Joint Meetings of African Ministers of Finance and Planning, a panel of experts assembled to talk about different aspects of the demographic dividend, explaining what it is and how countries might move toward it, and highlighting the story of Thailand’s success in realizing a dividend.
Increasingly, policymakers talk about a demographic dividend but many have little understanding of it. A common misconception is that a large, young population leads to a dividend: a dividend that is just around the corner, and that this dividend will be easy to realize. Each of these misconceptions fuels discussion, but also creates chances to better explain the opportunity for accelerated economic growth that a demographic dividend has to offer.
Following up on some recent blogs on the drop in the U.S. birth rate, I thought it would be useful to see which groups have been most affected. In the below graph, the bulk of the decline has been clearly due to one group, Mexican Americans. For many decades, that group has had by far the highest total fertility rate (TFR, or the average number of children per woman) in the United States. Even as recently as 2006, the Mexican American TFR was as high as 3.0, even higher than the average for all developing countries. But in 2011, the TFR plunged to 2.3, the sharpest drop in decades.
U.S. Total Fertility Rate, by Ethnicity, 2000-2010
Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.
NIGER.The 2012 Niger Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) preliminary report shows a continuing high level of fertility. The total fertility rate (TFR, or the average number of children per woman) was reported as 7.6, higher than in the 2006 DHS. In the 2006 survey, women had expressed an “ideal” number of children as 8.8, while men preferred 11.0, one of the highest in the world. The rate of childbearing among young women ages 15 to 19 was quite high at 199 births annually per 1,000 women. Of the women interviewed, 80 percent had no education at all.
Total Fertility Rate, Niger, in Four DHS Surveys
Note: In the 1992 DHS, the TFR is for six years before the survey; in 1998 and 2006, TFRs are for five years before the survey and, in 2012, three.
by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs
The Census Bureau released new data today showing rapid population growth in some unlikely places. Many parts of the Midwest have been losing population for decades, but there are new pockets of growth emerging in the Great Plains, in an area stretching from North Dakota to Texas, where oil production is booming. Between 2000 and 2010, Midland, Texas ranked 95th in population growth among 381 metropolitan areas. But since 2010, Midland’s population has increased by more than 7 percent, making it one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country.
Population gains are linked not only to private-sector job growth, but also the availability of government funding. The Washington, D.C. area has a high concentration of federal jobs as well as private-sector businesses that rely heavily on government contracts. Between 2010 to 2012, the U.S. population increased just 1.5 percent, while the population in the Washington, D.C. Metro Area increased by 4.2 percent. Federal spending has also helped keep the unemployment rate in the Washington, D.C. area relatively low (at around 5 percent).
In January, the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) and the United Nations Foundation (UNF) hosted a discussion about milestones in adolescent and youth health and development. All of the presenters emphasized the need for a holistic approach to the health and development of young people—one that enables them to delay marriage and childbearing, access youth-friendly health services, prevent the onset of mental disorders and noncommunicable diseases, and thrive in a supportive environment. Amanda Keifer of the Public Health Institute highlighted that with the creation of the Bali Global Youth Forum Declaration, the global community is moving in the right direction by putting young people’s rights at the heart of development.
Population pyramids are one of demography’s most useful graphics. And they can be easily prepared in Excel and PowerPoint. Here are some simple instructions and files to get you going.
To start, open the file Zambia Pyramid.xls and click on the tab at the bottom left, “DATA.” In Columns F and G, Zambia’s population by five-year age group and sex has been entered. In this case, it has been entered to the nearest person; depending on the source you use, it could be entered to the nearest thousand.
Now decide the scale you want to use. Graphing the data to the nearest person would result in the labels on the vertical y-axis to look a cluttered at best. The figures in Columns B and C are to the nearest million. Place the cursor on Cell B3: Two changes have been made to the data. First, the figures have been multiplied by -1 so that bars for males will appear on the left of the pyramid. Second, the figures have been divided by 1,000,000 in order to show labels in millions. If your data are in 1000s or some other form, simply change the “n” in the formula to some other value and copy the formula to 85+. Data for females are treated the same way, except that you don’t need to multiply by -1. Finally, the data are checked to see that they add up to Zambia’s total population.
Stan Bernstein, a retired UNFPA senior policy adviser and former health adviser on the UN Millennium Project, attended the Seventh Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development. During the conference, Bernstein reflected on the presence of reproductive health and population issues among the Millennium Development Goals and their indicators . He also commented on prospects for including relevant RH and population goals or indicators in the development agenda beyond 2015. Bernstein hailed the role of research from the PopPov network in the past and its potential contributions to future development agendas. He answers some questions for the PRB blog below.
Why is it important to include reproductive health and population issues in development goals?
There are several reasons. First, access to voluntary sexual and reproductive health care facilitates the attainment of other consensus development outcomes in the MDGs and other monitoring frameworks including reduction of poverty and preventable deaths of women and children. Read the rest of this entry »
by Kristen Devlin, program associate, International Programs
Drawing upon experience in international affairs, youth issues, and sub-Saharan Africa, Gry Larsen, Norway’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, delivered the opening words at the Seventh Annual Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development that took place recently in Oslo, Norway. In her address, she emphasized to an audience of researchers the importance that research has in developing a strong knowledge base for making sound policy decisions. Research should be considered a common platform for good discussion about important social issues.
Photo: Gry Larsen.
Larsen’s opening was thoughtful not only because it set the tone for this Population and Poverty “PopPov” Network conference by addressing the connections between population research and policy outcomes, but she also adeptly connected the issues central to the Population and Poverty (PopPov) research network—women’s empowerment, access to health care and services, and poverty reduction— to her home country, Norway. PopPov issues, she said, are close to Norway’s heart.
The 2010 Chad Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey-4,the third survey since 1996, showed a total fertility rate (TFR, the average number of children per woman) of 6.9. The 2010 TFR was higher than in two previous surveys, going back to the mid-1990s (see figure). The rate of childbearing among young women ages 15 to 19 was especially high at 203 births annually per 1,000 women.
by Kate Belohlav, research associate, International Programs
On the opening day of Seventh Annual PopPov Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development, Hans Rosling gave a presentation on a “Fact-Based Worldview.” After having watched several of Rosling’s TedTalks and having heard about his dynamic presence, I was excited to finally see him in person. Rosling, co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation and award-winning lecturer, calls himself an “edutainer,” but still I wondered if I would be entertained in an hour-plus talk at a research conference. Of course, I was proven wrong, and the dynamic Rosling left me both entertained and educated.
